Weather forecasting blends science, experience

Published Sept. 10, 2010
By Steve Hoffmann
81st Training Wing Public Affairs

KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. -- With more than 100 years of forecasting experience among the six members of the Keesler weather forecasting station, this is good news to Keesler's flying missions.

The base weather station supports the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, 815th Airlift Squadron and 45th Airlift Squadron with specific forecasting information that will tell pilots what to expect when they take off, land and anywhere in between.

"We even brief the Hurricane Hunters on the hurricanes," joked Jim Tart, lead forecaster with CSC. "Well, not exactly. We brief them on potential hazards they may encounter en route to the hurricane. After that, they know what to expect."

A FAME (flying area mission execution forecast) report is produced twice a day that briefs pilots flying within Keesler's local weather area. There are a variety of sources used to produce these forecasts, including local Doppler radar, weather balloons and data from other stations.

"It's also based on live observations from the pilots," said Jeff Light, forecaster with CSC, Keesler's weather service contractor. "If the pilots call back and say they encountered turbulence in a certain area and our charts don't show it, then we'll adjust them. Many times the live observations just confirm what the forecast is showing."

Along with what pilots can expect on their flying missions, the base weather station is also responsible for forecasting what the base itself can expect within a 5-mile radius.

"It can get pretty dicey around here at times," said Mr. Tart. "Like last year, when we had quarter-sized hail, 48-knot micro bursts, tornado and lightning warnings and the Thunderbirds were approaching for an upcoming air show -- we were biting our nails."
Pilots preparing to land at Keesler will do so if they are given the go ahead based on the observations of the forecasters. If conditions at Keesler are below minimum for landing, planes will be diverted to other area airfields such as Stennis International Airport in Hancock County or airports in Mobile, Ala., or Jackson, Miss.

And now, at the height of hurricane season, extra vigilance is paid toward protecting life and property. The weather station is responsible for producing all the local hurricane bulletins for both live events and exercises.

"Most of the weather forecasting information comes from a main hub at Barksdale Air Force Base, La., but often will need to be adjusted based on what we see here at Keesler," said Mr. Tart. "If the hub is not reporting something we see, based on our observations, we will sometimes override their reports and issue our own warnings."

The weather station also briefs the crisis action team and begind to issue bulletins when a hurricane is within 720 nautical miles of the base. If the average storm is moving at 10 miles per hour, that gives the base a window of 72 hours to prepare.

Students from the 335th Training Squadron's weather training flight is required to visit the base weather station. There students are instructed on what to expect when they get to an airfield weather station. As former instructors themselves, the base forecasters impart knowledge on what to expect in both mission and airfield services.

"I tell the students, when they get to the hub, just listen to what the base forecasters have to say because that's where the seasoned veteran forecasters are."

"With the hub concept of weather forecasting, it's hard to say how accurate our product is," said Mr. Light. "But if you were to ask our mission customers, the guys flying the planes, they will tell you we're pretty dead-on."

Copies of the most current five-day forecast and hurricane bulletin can be found in the public folders in Microsoft Outlook under Keesler AFB in the CSC/Weather folder.